Rightfully so, the Brooklyn Nets are title favorites. At +230 to win it all this year (odds from the end of March), the three-headed monster of Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and James Harden is undeniable for oddsmakers.
Yet, for some reason, fans and analysts seem to doubt the Nets and their ability to win 16 postseason games in order to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy for the first time ever. The Nets have won two Finals, but both came while in the ABA.
Maybe it’s the lasting stench of being the “little brother” of New York, with the Knicks still the old guard of fandom in the city.
Or perhaps it’s the very legitimate road the Nets would have to go through in order to even reach the Finals leading to the doubt — a Philadelphia 76ers team led by a potential MVP candidate in Joel Embiid and a Milwaukee Bucks team led by two-time MVP Giannis Antentokounmpo (who has played like an MVP at times this season as well).
Whatever the reason, fans are doubting the Nets.
The Sixers remain the East team I have the most faith in.
— Duncan Smith (@DuncanSmithNBA) April 18, 2021
So, let’s look at some reasons why the Nets should still be favored, beyond the obvious reason that they have three of the most talented players in the NBA right now.
Stop sleeping on Brooklyn!
Why the Brooklyn Nets should be NBA Finals favorites: More rest for stars than other teams
The NBA faced insurmountable odds to pull off the 2019-20 season, and the ramifications of having to put games on pause for several months in 2020 due to the global pandemic spilled over into the 2020-21 season as well. Primarily, logistics and scheduling were and are a sore point for the league this season.
The league initially released the first half of the schedule and then later came around to release the second half once it got a feel for what games from the first half would need to be rearranged due to postponements because of health and safety protocols (positive COVID-19 tests, primarily).
As a result, the second half of the schedule is condensed. By a lot. For instance, the Nets final 30 games were scheduled in a span of 56 days, meaning an average of 0.87 rest days in between games.
All this to say the wear and tear on athletes’ bodies is becoming a major issue. LeBron James, notably one of the most durable athletes of the modern era, has missed 15 games and counting due to injury. His counterpart Anthony Davis has missed time as well. Jamal Murray went down with an unfortunate ACL tear and will miss the remainder of the season.
General managers are reportedly anxious about the short and long-term impacts of the sprint to close the regular season and the potential injuries to come, according to a recent ESPN report.
While plenty of teams have to fear that their athletes are red-lining it to close the season and chase favorable seeding for the postseason, that’s just not really as much of a concern for Brooklyn.
Of course, Nets fans always have a hint of anxiety regarding the health of their star players, but beyond normal wear and tear, the three stars of the team — Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant — probably won’t be overly exerted heading into the postseason.
Note: Kevin Durant recently left a game with injury, but so far reports indicate it’s not a major injury, though he will miss time.
To this point, Harden has played just 34 games, Irving 41, and Durant 24. Durant has yet to even pass the 1,000-minute mark. Even Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have played 46 and 44 games, respectively.
It’s not great that a lot of those absences for Brooklyn have been ailments to their star players, but nothing catastrophic at this point in the season is good.
Furthermore, let’s zoom out just a bit. The league-wide concern over star players suffering major injuries because of the stressful end-of-season is not solely because of this season. Many GMs are concerned about the cumulative impacts of over-exertion from a delayed and quick-moving end to the 2019-20 season, not just this year.
Irving and Durant both passed on participating in the NBA’s bubble (Durant was out for the season, anyway), meaning they are theoretically more rested than the average star players.
As a for instance, consider the aforementioned Murray, who willed the Nuggets to two consecutive Game 7 series last year just months before the start to the 2020-21 season.
Key Nets players have a lot of rest banked up. That could end up being a serious advantage in this year’s postseason.
Why the Brooklyn Nets should be NBA Finals favorites: Stars used to star dynamics
The dynamics of playing alongside other star players can be strange. The first year of the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh trio in Miami did not turn out a title. There was noted friction with Kevin Durant’s first year in Golden State.
The three-headed monster in Brooklyn, though, is relatively well-adjusted to the dynamics of intense levels of star players. And in fact, one of the reasons they’ve been so good is due to James Harden’s somewhat surprising surrender to his ball-dominant role for the betterment of the team.
Kevin Durant played with one of the most talented teams of all-time alongside Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. Kyrie Irving played alongside LeBron James. Harden, though he hasn’t been a part of a “Big 3” per se before this team, did play with Russell Westbrook in Houston, and before each of the three players experienced a major jump to stardom played alongside Durant and Westbrook in Oklahoma City.
Again, not without friction. Durant and Green in Golden State got into public shouting matches:
Green was suspended by the team for the incident.
Kyrie wanted out of Cleveland because he felt like a disrespected No. 2 to James.
But since, these players have learned and matured, realizing that the dynamics of a team with so much star power need to be balanced in order for the team to win.
Irving’s maturation was in the public eye:
Kyrie on calling LeBron: “The responsibility of being the best in the world and leading your team is something that is not meant for many people. … Only few are meant for it, or chosen for it, and I feel like the best person to call was him."
— Chris Forsberg (@ChrisForsberg_) January 17, 2019
The Green public confrontation with Durant ended with an apology from Green as well. While maybe that says more about Green than Durant, it’s an example of how Durant has had to go through the roller-coaster ride of emotions and personalities that come with playing on talented teams.
What does this mean for their title run, though? It certainly gives the Nets a bit of an advantage, and maybe a hedge against the implosion that could come from a surprise early-series loss that prevents it from spilling into a quick slip-and-slide to a disappointing postseason exit.
Ultimately, personalities and chemistry matter in the postseason. So far, it looks like a major strength of the Nets roster.
Why the Brooklyn Nets should be NBA Finals favorites: Analytics
A lot of people will point to a few specific statistics to point out how the Nets aren’t ready to run after a title.
Let’s talk about those first.
Poor Brooklyn Nets stats that might lack context
The Nets are an average rebounding team, something that probably won’t change much with the window for adding new players closed.
They’re also a poor defensive team, with the 26th-best defensive resting in the league. They don’t force turnovers (their 11.3 forced per game is 27th in the NBA) and they don’t force missed shots.
On the shooting, what’s most discouraging is the effort. The Nets allow 31.9 shots beyond the arc per game that are classified as “open” or “wide open” by Second Spectrum. That’s indicative of a lack of effort on close-outs, likely.
Even more frustrating is when they guard threes well, opponents shoot horrifically. They are top-four in the league in opponent 3P% on “tightly” guarded shots (26.3 percent).
One could argue that on a team like this, they may be able to turn it on on the defensive end when needed.
And additionally, let’s not forget that Irving, Durant, and Harden have shared the floor for just a small sample of games. They’ve played a grand total of 186 minutes over seven games together thus far. Poor stats at this point need to be taken with a heaping of salt.
Brooklyn Nets stats that show the offense is potent
But most impressive about this team is of course, that smothering offense. It doesn’t matter how many points the opponent scores when you can put up 130+ points at-will.
The Nets score the second-most points per game (118.8) and have the league’s second-best offensive rating (118.3).
Brooklyn Nets clutch stats
A big part of postseason winning is, of course, winning in the clutch.
The Nets have one of the league’s best clutch win percentages at 71.9% (third-best in the league).
And back to those 3-point stats… Remember how I said this team is one that could very well be one to turn on its perimeter defense whenever it wants to? It kind of seems as if that’s the case, given that the Nets have the third-best 3-point percentage in the clutch, allowing opponents to sink just 27 of their 96 shots (28.1 percent) in clutch situations this season so far.
So, feeling at ease now, or are you still worried about this team heading into the postseason?