After he signed a one-year deal with the Brooklyn Nets following a strong performance in the Orlando Summer League, hopes were high for Willie Reed amongst fans in New York.
Right off the bat, however, there were bumps in the road. A couple of weeks before the start of the regular season, Reed tore a tendon in his thumb and was forced to undergo surgery. When he made his NBA debut on December 4th, hype began to build once again after he had posted eight points in just 11 minutes of play.
The stop and start frequency of the hype that surrounded him throughout the early part of the season was a forecast of things to come and now as we see the season nearing its end, it feels like we haven’t seen nearly enough of Reed to make a judgement on him for the future.
With just five games remaining on the schedule, it is imperative for coach Tony Brown to give Reed the extra time that he needs to be able to showcase what he can bring to the Nets for the long haul. In the brief glimpses that we’ve been able to see, Reed looks like he can be a solid contributor off of the bench.
Though he’s played just 38 games this year, he has proven that his elite rebounding skills from the D-League have made the transition with him to the NBA. His 15.9 Total Rebound Percentage ranks ahead of players like Zach Randolph, Nerlens Noel and Draymond Green and his spectacular 12.3 Offensive Rebound Percentage is good enough to set himself in front of DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard and Tyson Chandler.
His rebounding has been phenomenal, but the problem that he has run into is the fact that he’s competing with Thomas Robinson for minutes. Robinson himself, though he has many flaws in his game, is one of the better pure rebounders in the game so the edge that Reed has against most big men is not as apparent in comparison to Robinson.
Robinson has managed better numbers on the glass, but on closer analysis it appears that Reed is able to pull down tougher rebounders at a higher rate. Reed is currently grabbing 33.6% of his rebounds with one contesting rebounder and 13.9% with two or more contesting, while Robinson stands at just 32.4% and 8.8%, respectively. While these seem like marginal differences, Reed’s ability to pull down rebounds in traffic cannot go unmentioned.
Beyond rebounding, it becomes much more clear which player has the edge in terms of ability. On the offensive end, Reed is a consistent finisher at the rim and doesn’t require many touches in the post. His .593 True Shooting Percentage leads the team and is leaps and bounds better than Robinson’s porous .444 mark.
In addition to his work in close, his Offensive Rating is one point higher than Robinson’s over the course of the season. Once again, this may seem like a marginal difference but that one point is the difference between the offense of the Houston Rockets and that of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Defensively is where the differences between the two really begin to display themselves. Reed’s Defensive Rating is three points better than Robinson’s and as a team, opponents’ Offensive Rating’s decrease by 4.5 when Reed is on the court while increasing 4.6 when Robinson takes the floor.
For all that Brook Lopez is as a player, a shot blocker he is not. Reed is able to bring that defensive presence, especially shot blocking, that is absent. Reed is the team’s leader in Block Percentage and is a competent rim protector despite being slightly undersized.
The team getting better with Reed on the court and worse with Robinson is made clear by the disparity in each of their Real Plus/Minus numbers. Reed currently sits at 49th amongst qualifying power forwards, a mark of being a reliable backup, while Robinson is all the way down at 95th out of 99, below players like Adreian Payne and Charlie Villanueva.
In under 40 games with the team this season, Willie Reed has shown that he can be a more valuable player than Thomas Robinson, yet Robinson has had exceedingly more opportunities. With five games left in the season, it’s time for Reed to get the chance to show what he can do with starter’s minutes.