WOULD THE NETS HAVE A CHANCE?
Check out O’Connor simulated drawing for the 20 teams:
Here’s a random draw placing one team from each tier into each group.
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) May 26, 2020
A group stage:
•Gives bubble teams a shot
•Accounts for shuffling in the standings that‘d occur had season resumed
•Tiebreaker favors teams with the best season record
Read more: https://t.co/sv8YKmY5O0 pic.twitter.com/po5NiqYBCH
Of course, this is one of the hundreds of potential combinations the Nets could find themselves in with a “World Cup” proposal. Though they certainly would not fancy them favorites to advance, stranger things have happened.
While they are yet to play the new-look Clippers this season, the Nets thumped the Sacramento Kings by 19 at home in November. They’ve won four straight over the past two years over the Denver Nuggets and after losing two matchups earlier in the year against the Indiana Pacers, took the most recent contest in February courtesy of one Spencer Dinwiddie.
WOW.
— Anthony Puccio (@APOOCH) February 11, 2020
Nets defeat the Pacers, 106-105. Spencer Dinwiddie scored 12 points in the 4th quarter, including the game-winner: pic.twitter.com/1ZYG3L9TSm
To have a chance of advancing, they would realistically need to 1) sweep the two games against the Kings, 2) sweep either the Pacers or Nuggets and split with the other, and 3) manage to split with the Clippers to go 6-2. Call it about a 10% chance, and that’s optimistic (I tried to run this using 538’s ratings and kept getting under 5%).
Regardless, there are hundreds of possible draws the Nets could find themselves in. What if they get the Bucks, Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, and New Orleans Pelicans (worst case)? Or, what if they get the Raptors, Utah Jazz (without the injured Bojan Bogdanovic), Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs (probably the best case)?
The odds of advancing to the final eight are probably less than 15% in the most optimistic of scenarios. Is that greater than the chances the Nets would’ve had in a best of seven against Boston or Toronto?