Indiana Pacers face pressure of expectations in 2018-19

After they were perhaps the biggest surprise in the NBA last season, the Indiana Pacers head into 2018-19 with added pressure to produce an encore.

The forecasts were pessimistic to outright gloomy for the Indiana Pacers heading into the 2017-18 season.

Longtime franchise star Paul George was gone, traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and fans and analysts alike wondered what Indiana could do without a true star heading into the season.

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That question was answered, emphatically, by one of the guys acquired from the Thunder in the George deal, as former No. 2 overall pick Victor Oladipo broke out in a huge way last season.

Oladipo had been a solid, but not star, player for the Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City in his first four seasons and what he did last season went beyond merely being unexpected.

He earned his first All-Star nod, was named to the All-Defensive first team (his first All-Defensive selection), earned a spot on the All-NBA third team and capped it off by rolling to Most Improved Player honors over Clint Capela of the Houston Rockets and Spencer Dinwiddie of the Brooklyn Nets.

Oladipo averaged 23.1 points per game (more than five points higher than his previous career high), added 5.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists a night and led the NBA with 2.4 steals per game while logging 34 minutes per outing on .477/.371/.799 shooting (far and away his best career marks from the field and deep).

That performance added to a strong second season from the other piece acquired from the Thunder, Domantas Sabonis, was part of a season in which just about everything went right for the Pacers.

Young center Myles Turner missed 17 games with a sprained right elbow and point guard Darren Collison was down for 13 games after arthroscopic knee surgery, but otherwise Indiana stayed healthy and put together a stunning 48-win campaign before taking the eventual Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers to the limit in the first round.

Bojan Bogdanovic, a former Net, averaged a career-high 14.3 points per game while replacing George at the 3 and Thaddeus Young was his steady self at the 4.

Lance Stephenson, Cory Joseph and Sabonis anchored a solid bench gang and coach Nate McMillan pressed almost all of the right buttons to keep the Pacers competitive in the wake of George’s acrimonious exit from Indianapolis.

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The 48 victories were the most for the Pacers since they went to the second of their two straight conference finals duels with the Miami Heat after a 56-26 campaign in 2013-14. (also the last time Indiana got out of the first round).

The Pacers did retool a bit in the offseason after losing Stephenson in free agency to the Los Angeles Lakers.

They have added former Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans as well as veteran big man Kyle O’Quinn and knockdown shooter Doug McDermott in free agency and drafted point guard Aaron Holiday in the first round.

The Pacers have already taken their first injury hit of 2018-19, with guard C.J. Wilcox ruled out for the season after rupturing his Achilles during a training session. Wilcox had come to Indiana in August after signing a two-way contract.

Indiana will be dealing with expectations to improve on last season, while dealing with a few moving parts. Will O’Quinn take time away from the improving Sabonis in the middle? Can Turner develop as a true two-way stretch 5? Can Oladipo maintain or improve on last season’s level?

McDermott comes with questions, as well. The former Creighton All-American can shoot it, with a career 3-point percentage of 40.3, but that’s about all he does. He doesn’t defend or rebound, which is why the Pacers are his fifth team entering his fifth NBA season.

He’s become the guy teams always want to acquire … until they have him, then they can’t wait to move him.

McDemott adds shooting, but the three-year, $22 million price tag for the unrestricted free agent seems a bit high for a shooting specialist who adds little else to the roster.

Ultimately, the Pacers in 2018-19 will go as far as Oladipo can carry them as he embarks on one of the NBA’s truest lessons — the only thing more difficult than breaking out as a star is continuing to play like one.

2017-18 Vitals

48-34, fifth in Eastern Conference
Lost to Cleveland in first round, 4-3
105.6 PPG (17th), 104.2 OPPG (9th)
109.5 Offensive Rating (11th), 108.1 Defensive Rating (13th)

Team Leaders (minimum 42 games/82 made 3-pointers)
Scoring: Victor Oladipo 23.1 PPG
Rebounding: Domantas Sabonis 7.7 RPG
Assists: Darren Collison 5.3 APG
Steals: Victor Oladipo 2.4 SPG
Blocks: Myles Turner 1.8 BPG
3-point shooting: Darren Collison (46.8 pct.)

Honors
Victor Oladipo (Most Improved Player, All-NBA 3rd Team, All-Defensive 1st Team, All-Star Game)

2018-19 Roster

Ike Anigbogu, F-C
Bojan Bogdanovic, G-F
Darren Collison, G
Tyreke Evans, G-F
Aaron Holiday, G
Alize Johnson, F
Omari Johnson, F
Cory Joseph, G
T.J. Leaf, F
Doug McDermott, F
Ben Moore, F
Kyle O’Quinn, C
Victor Oladipo, G
Domantas Sabonis, F-C
Elijah Stewart, G
Edmond Sumner, G (two-way)
Myles Turner, C-F
C.J. Wilcox, G (two-way)
Thaddeus Young, F

Offseason Additions
Aaron Holiday (draft), Alize Johnson (draft), Doug McDemott (free agent, Dallas, July 6), Tyreke Evans (free agent, Memphis, July 6), Kyle O’Quinn (free agent, New York, July 9), Elijah Stewart (undrafted free agent, July 16), C.J. Wilcox (free agent, Portland, two-way, Aug. 3), Omari Johnson (street free agent, Sept. 21).

Offseason Departures
Trevor Booker (free agent), Joe Young (free agent), Al Jefferson (waived, July 2), Alex Poythress (waived, July 6), Glenn Robinson (free agent, Detroit, July 7), Lance Stephenson (free agent, L.A. Lakers, July 10).

Also See

Against the Brooklyn Nets

Last season (home team in CAPS)
Oct. 18: PACERS 140, Nets 131
Dec. 17: Pacers 109, NETS 97
Dec. 23: PACERS 123, Nets 119, OT
Feb. 14: Pacers 108, NETS 103

This season
Oct. 20: at Indiana
Dec. 21: at Brooklyn
April 7: at Indiana

Projected depth chart

C: Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Kyle O’Quinn, Ike Anigbogu
PF: Thaddeus Young, Omari Johnson, T.J. Leaf
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic, Doug McDermott, Ben Moore, Elijah Stewart, Alize Johnson
SG: Victor Oladipo
PG: Tyreke Evans, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Aaron Holiday

Outlook

One of the toughest things for teams is to follow-up a surprise breakout season without taking steps backward.

We saw that with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2015-16, when they improved by 26 wins from 15-67 to 41-41 in 2014-15 only to regress to a 33-49 lottery season.

The weight of expectations will be ever-present for the Pacers this season after they were able to fly mostly under the radar for much of last season.

That said, Oladipo has been around enough to believe that last season wasn’t a flash in the pan, particularly since it was in the first year of the four-year, $84 million extension he signed in 2016 while still with Orlando.

Breakout seasons that occur when a player isn’t trying to earn a new deal tend to be a lot more believable.

Turner’s development is key to the progress of the Pacers, particularly his development as a rebounder and overall defender. He’s been a solid rim protector in his first three seasons in the league and now it’s time for him to progress to the next level at the defensive end.

At 6-foot-11 and 243 pounds, Turner has the necessary size and he’s certainly athletic enough to believe he’s capable of taking the next step as a defender.

Evans, meanwhile, last season with Memphis played as well as he had since his rookie season, but missed 30 games with a rib injury and hasn’t played more than 52 games in a season since 2014-15.

The other question with Evans is his ability to contribute to a winning club. In nine NBA seasons, Evans has been to the playoffs just once, part of the New Orleans Pelicans’ four-game sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors in 2015.

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As the Pacers are about to learn, however, producing a successful sequel is often much harder than developing the initial hit.

Projected record: 47-35